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Dollar regains momentum as yen struggles
  + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was back on the front foot on Wednesday, making modest gains after earlier losses from renewed bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, while the yen eased towards the 155 per dollar level and kept intervention risks from Tokyo high. The dollar was back on the front foot on Wednesday, making modest gains after earlier losses from renewed bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, while the yen eased towards the 155 per dollar level and kept intervention risks from Tokyo high. Analysts have said that any intervention from Tokyo would only serve as a temporary respite for the yen, given stark interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan remain. Analysts expect the central bank to leave the door open to lower interest rates as early as June. The Australian dollar fell 0.2% to $0.6585, pressured in part by a less hawkish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia than anticipated after it held interest rates steady on Tuesday.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Shunichi Suzuki, they'll, Carol Kong, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Rodrigo Catril Organizations: Federal, U.S, Bank of Japan, country's Finance, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, greenback, Minneapolis, Minneapolis Fed, National Australia Bank, Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Tokyo, Beijing, Japan, Bank, U.S, Minneapolis
There's a massive wealth transfer underway. "It has started and it's only going to accelerate," said Liz Koehler, head of advisor engagement for BlackRock's wealth advisory business. And yet, some millennials and Generation Z may not be inheriting as much as they think. Recent reports show a growing disconnect between how much the next generation expects to receive in the "great wealth transfer" and how much their aging parents plan on leaving them. However, 55% of baby boomers who plan to leave behind an inheritance said they will pass on less than $250,000, Alliant found.
Persons: Liz Koehler, Gen Zers, Alliant, Isabel Barrow Organizations: Finance, Alliant Credit Union, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Edelman, Edelman Financial Locations: millennials
In Asia, investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia decision on rates as the bank concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting. Economists polled by Reuters expect the RBA to hold its benchmark lending rate at 4.35% for its fourth meeting in a row. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.23% ahead of the decision, on course to gain for a fourth straight day. South Korea's Kospi popped 1.6% as trading resumed after a public holiday, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.08%. Japan's Nikkei 225 also resumed trading after a holiday to rise 0.96%, while the broad-based Topix gained 0.61%.
Persons: Australia's Organizations: Opera, Vivid, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Nikkei Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, Pacific
Yen eases despite intervention threat, Aussie steady before RBA
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen continued to drift lower against the dollar on Tuesday as gaping interest rate differentials weighed on the currency, despite fresh warnings from Japanese officials following two rounds of suspected dollar-selling intervention last week. The U.S. dollar gained 0.22% to 154.235 yen in early Asian trading, adding to its 0.58% rally from Monday. The Aussie edged up 0.17% to $0.6636, heading back towards the high of $0.6650 from Friday, a level last seen on March 8. All but one of the 37 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll expect the RBA to keep rates on hold, with the other predicting a quarter point rate hike, amid stubbornly high inflation. "A different set of central bankers would have had the policy rate higher sooner on the same set of data," Taylor Nugent, a markets economist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a note.
Persons: Michele Bullock, Masato Kanda, Carol Kong, Bullock, Taylor Nugent Organizations: U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, The U.S ., Bank of Japan, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of, National Australia Bank Locations: The, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAustralia's central bank will probably be unable to cut rates in 2024, economist saysPaul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities at HSBC, discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to keep rates on hold and the outlook for its monetary policy.
Persons: Paul Bloxham Organizations: HSBC, Reserve Bank Locations: Australia, New Zealand
China's and Australia's flags are seen on the tables where China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong held their bilateral meeting at Parliament House in Canberra on March 20, 2024. Asia-Pacific markets tracked Wall Street gains on Monday as a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve could start cutting rates soon. Investors, meanwhile, awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision on Tuesday and China's April trade data on Thursday. ING said in a note last week that the RBA meeting was "worth watching closely," adding that recent inflation data from Australia showed growth in prices was starting to accelerate. However, the analysts said Australia's inflation data was better than they had expected, and compared to the US, the country's economy had slowed more with the labor market softening substantially.
Persons: Wang Yi, Penny Wong Organizations: House, Wall, Federal Reserve, Investors, Reserve Bank, ING, Global Locations: Canberra, Asia, Pacific, Australia, Hong Kong, China, India, Japan, South
Read previewYoung Americans are feeling increasingly isolated from their offices and classrooms, and these "disconnected youth" — or "opportunity youth" — may be ill-positioned for the future. Loneliness and a tough job market are leaving many Gen Zers feeling stuck, isolated, and unsupported. In fact, they're members of the disconnected youth — defined as Gen Zers who are not in school and not working. Disconnected youth are at risk of long-term stagnationMost Gen Zers — who are between the ages of 12 and 27 — are in this decisive decade. How to help disconnected youthAlthough many disconnected youth struggle with school and work, researchers cautioned against a "one size fits all" solution.
Persons: , Gen Zers, Richard Reeves, Reeves, Zers, aren't, Zers —, Jonathan Zaff, Ian Rowe, Lara Aknin, Zaff, Zer, isn't Organizations: Service, Brookings, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, National Center for Education Statistics, Boston University, American Enterprise Institute, Partnership Locations: North America, Brookings
CNBC's Inside India newsletter: Will AI make or break India?
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +9 min
But one that could foreshadow India's growth story. Can Teleperformance's stock plunge be the canary in the coal mine for what is likely to happen to India because of AI? But it's likely to be a blip for India's growth trajectory, given the macro forces at play. Besides creating jobs that are less likely to be immediately disrupted by AI, India could also be a net beneficiary of artificial intelligence. The Indian stock market indexes, Sensex and Nifty 50 , are heading for a positive week again — up by 1% and 1.2%, respectively.
Persons: Findlay Kember, Klarna, ChatGPT, K Krithivasan, Krithivasan, Narendra Modi, It's, Shilan Shah, Goldman Sachs, Vinay Dwivedi, Ashok Gulati, Nomura, League Pickleball, Karine Jean, Pierre, Jerome Powell, Raghuram Rajan, Ashish Jain, CNBC's Ayushi Jindal Organizations: AFP, Getty, India's Tata Consultancy Services, Financial Times, TCS, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, University of Oxford, Capital Economics, Investment, Nomura, Qualcomm, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, UPI, India, Commission, Agricultural, United Pickleball Association, Global Sports, PPA, League, Washington Post, White, U.S ., Federal, CNBC, Reserve Bank of India, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Swedish, Paris, India, Chennai, U.S, Europe, China, Singapore, South Korea, Canada, United States
AdvertisementIt could be all about recessionsSince the 1950s, whenever the US economy fell into a recession, the rate of working men tended to suffer a lasting blow. AdvertisementWhy have recessions appeared to have such a lasting impact on working men? The strong recovery of men working after the pandemic recession could be due to the unique nature of this downturn — which tanked an otherwise healthy economy. And of course, some lucky prime-age men aren't working because they've had a lot of financial success — and already retired. Deciphering how much these explanations have fueled the decline of working men could be worthy of further explanation, the economists said.
Persons: , It's, Abigail Wozniak, Wozniak, David Autor, There's, Jason Furman, Barack Obama's, Elise Gould, Gould, aren't, we've, John M, Coglianese, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Washington Post, of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, BLS, Economic, Economic Policy Institute, Federal Reserve
A growing group of America's young people are not in school, not working, or not looking for work. They're called "disconnected youth" or "opportunity youth," and their ranks have been growing for nearly three decades. Experts say it's not just work and school; this group is often also disconnected from a sense of purpose. Palmer added that those with limited access to transportation, people with disabilities, and young parents were also more susceptible. Disconnected young people don't have that luxury."
Persons: , Destiny, She's, she's, They're, Kristen Lewis, Lewis, hadn't, there's, Sen, Tim Kaine, who's, Joseph, he's, hasn't, he'd, Ashley Palmer, Palmer, Sarah Nunley, Nunley, Veronica, There's, Lucchesi, they're Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Social Science Research Council, Survey, University of Minnesota's, National Center for Education Statistics, Walmart, Texas Christian University, Ivy League Locations: Florida, Alabama, Indiana, Silicon Valley, YOLO, Texas
Markets wary of intervention as yen struggles at 155 level
  + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Having traded in a tight range over the past few days, a buoyant dollar finally broke above the 155 yen level for the first time since 1990 in the previous session, and was last steady at 155.34 yen in early Asia trade. The breach of the 155 yen level comes as the BOJ meets to discuss monetary policy, though expectations are for the central bank to keep its short-term interest rate target unchanged following last month's landmark exit from negative rates. "We expect the BOJ meeting to deliver a marginally hawkish hold outcome," said Carl Ang, fixed income research analyst at MFS Investment Management. Continued expectations of gradual policy tightening and a low terminal policy rate make it difficult for the yen to appreciate significantly, even if at historically depressed levels." The dollar steadied at 105.79 against a basket of currencies, pulling away from a nearly two-week low hit in the previous session.
Persons: Carl Ang, Kazuo Ueda, Justin Smirk Organizations: Bank of Japan, MFS Investment Management, Reserve Bank of Australia, Westpac, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Asia, Australia
That rate of rapid wealth growth has never happened before in the data series' history, per the analysis, and it comes after wealth growth remained relatively stagnant for young Americans pre-pandemic. This data, as the authors of the CAP analysis note, suggests that wealth gains weren't just reserved for the top-earning millennials since both median and average wealth grew. "This suggests that the strong wealth growth for younger Americans is broad-based and not the result of strong growth of a handful of wealthy younger households," the authors write. As that report notes, financial assets were a major component of younger Americans' wealth growing. "We need to keep this robust labor market going and Congress needs to set its sights on younger Americans' greatest affordability challenge: housing," Duke said.
Persons: , Gen X, Brendan Duke, Christian Weller, X, millennials, Duke, BI's Noah Sheidlower Organizations: Service, Center for American Progress, Federal, Business, Boomers, Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer Finances, millennials, Liberty Street, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: millennials, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
India's unorganized sector, which is made up of millions of small businesses that are privately owned, make up about 93% of the country's total workforce. As many as 32% of the respondents said increasing unemployment was the key reason why they would not elect the BJP again. India's Labour Ministry did not immediately respond to CNBC's queries pertaining to the country's unemployment situation. Rajan, who was speaking about how to make India an advanced economy at the George Washington University, said: "Unemployment numbers are high, disguised unemployment is even higher. A slowdown in hiring in India's huge information technology sector is also to blame for the lack of well-paying, white-collar jobs.
Persons: Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi, Modi, Gandhi, , Manmohan Singh, Arun Kumar, Lokniti, joblessness, Kumar, Raghuram Rajan, Rajan Organizations: DELHI, International Labour Organisation, Institute of Human, Goods, Services Tax, Jawahar Lal Nehru, CNBC, ILO, Bharatiya Janata Party, Indian National Congress, BJP, Modi, India's Labour Ministry, Former Reserve Bank of India, George Washington University, Labor Locations: India, Bihar, New Delhi
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, U.S., February 14, 2024. Staff | Reuters"If you take a broad view, inflation got way above where we were comfortable with and it's down a lot," he said. The first three readings for this year indicate covering the remaining distance to 2% "may not be as rapid," he added. He described himself as a "proud data dog," and pointed to what he says is "the first rule of the kennel." "If you are unclear, stop walking and start sniffing," he said.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Council, Foreign Relations, Staff, Reuters, Market Locations: New York, U.S
I want to protect further downside in the broader U.S. equity market despite the fact that S & P 500 has had an acute drop of more than 5% off its recent 2024 highs. I do believe that we are still in a bull market, but the headwinds are strong in the current market conditions. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Lastly, markets are contending with corporate earnings season. Per my friends at Factset, the S & P 500's valuation on a forward 12-month P/E ratio is 20.6. DISCLOSURES: (Long this spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .
Persons: Raphael Bostic Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Big Tech, Trust Locations: Israel, Iran, Factset
"The stars have aligned for India in terms of demographics, population and market movements. Peeyush Mittal, portfolio manager at Matthews Asia, agrees with the consensus that Modi will win a majority once again — which would be a "non-event" for markets. Conrad Saldanha, portfolio manager at the Neuberger Berman Emerging Markets Equity Fund, agrees. Among the companies on his watch are power equipment player Bharat Heavy Electricals and engineering conglomerate Thermax , amid an expected expansion in power generation capacity. According to FactSet data, 24 of the 26 analysts covering the stock have a buy or overweight rating on it.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Neil Bahal, Peeyush Mittal, Modi, Mittal, Conrad Saldanha, Neuberger Berman, Bharat, Neuberger Berman's Saldanha, Saldanha Organizations: South, Bombay Stock Exchange, CNBC Pro, , Matthews Asia, Reserve Bank of, India Fund, Neuberger, Markets Equity Fund, Cummins India, Investor, Bharat Electronics, ICICI, HDFC, IndusInd Bank, Apollo Locations: Hong Kong, India, Reserve Bank of India, Saldanha
U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday as investors digested comments from Federal Reserve policymakers about the state of the economy and monetary policy outlook. Investors considered the path ahead for interest rates after comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell. "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence," he said. Earlier in the week, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said there was "no urgency" for rate cuts to begin. Further comments from Fed officials are expected later in the week.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Mary Daly Organizations: Treasury, . U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Locations: .
More people are looking for a new job, and they have high salary expectations. The lowest average pay people would be willing to accept a new job reached $81,822 as of March, a new series high since 2014. That's according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest consumer expectations survey, which is fielded every four months. But to live comfortably by traditional budgeting advice, the average person needs to earn upwards of $89,000 — closer to the latest data on salary expectations — according to a recent analysis from SmartAsset. And despite a hiring slowdown, ZipRecruiter data shows more companies are actively recruiting to hire for open roles, and they're also extending more counteroffers to keep employees from quitting.
Persons: Julia Pollak Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Labor Department
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by nearly 2 basis point to 4.6344%, trading at levels last seen in mid-November of 2023. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.947% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Tuesday as investors considered the latest economic data and comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. Investors weighed the path ahead for interest rates as they considered the latest economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said there was "no urgency" for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Persons: Mary Daly Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Investors, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Locations: Israel
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStructural changes are needed to get the economy growing again, says South Africa central bank headSpeaking to CNBC's Karen Tso at the IMF Spring Meetings, Lesetja Kganyago, governor of the Reserve Bank of South Africa, discusses his country's economy and what's needed to improve the growth and inflation picture.
Persons: Karen Tso, Lesetja Kganyago Organizations: Reserve Bank of Locations: South Africa, Reserve Bank of South Africa
Those what-ifs could further roil gas and oil prices. But if there’s further conflict, he said, “you’d see a much higher premium for oil prices. If there’s a de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, they said, oil prices should come down over the next few weeks. But if there’s an escalation in conflict, they expect that oil prices could jump to more than $100 per barrel, they wrote in a note Monday. Retail sales rose 0.7% in March from the prior month, a slower pace than February’s upwardly revised 0.9% gain, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Persons: New York CNN —, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, Jerome Powell, We’ll, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Dave Sekera, Israel doesn’t, , , Moody’s, there’s, Chris Isidore, Pete Muntean, Sam Salehpour, Read, Bryan Mena, Claire Tassin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow, JPMorgan, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Bank, Bank of Canada, Seven, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Morningstar, Nvidia, AMD, Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, Alaska Airlines, Commerce Department, Morning, Amazon Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, China, United States, Washington ,, Iran, Israel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Dollar firm, yen under watch ahead of key US CPI release
  + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on display in Yichang, Hubei province, Nov 13, 2023. The inflation data follows a strong jobs report last Friday that blew past forecasts, raising questions on how soon and how much the central bank will cut rates this year. On the yen, Wednesday's CPI data will be "a big test for Japanese authorities," Kong added. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against six rivals, held firm at 104.12. The kiwi climbed as high as $0.6077 versus the U.S. dollar, its strongest since March 21, before flattening at $0.60595.
Persons: Carol Kong, Kong, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Reserve Bank of New, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S ., Treasury, Traders, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S, China
How India is challenging China as Asia's tech powerhouse
  + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Arjun Kharpal | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +30 min
New Delhi has sought to woo foreign tech companies and has been increasingly successful, with giants like Apple increasing their presence in the country. Tom Chitty: For years China has been Asia's tech powerhouse where the world's electronics and some of the biggest companies on the planet are located. And I think India is in the very early stages, to put it quite bluntly, of trying to do that. Tom Chitty: India have got an election this year as well, which is going to be interesting to see what happens there. You know, India has aligned itself slightly more to the countries that are currently a bit more anti-China, shall we say?
Persons: Tom Chitty, Arjun Kharpal, It's, Let's, I'm, Arjun, You'll, We're, we've, what's, gunning, Narendra Modi, it's, Tom, Modi, Trump, Apple, COVID, there's, Taiwan's, that's, Karen Tso, China's, Tim Cook, Raghuram Rajan, We've, feasibly, India's, let's, he's, you've, we'll, I've, We'll Organizations: Apple, CNBC, China, India's, Foxconn, Micron, Tata Electronics, Taiwan's Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, Reserve Bank of India, CCP, Samsung, Bain, India, London Locations: China, Tencent, Asia, India, Delhi, Washington, Beijing, American, COVID, U.S, Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea, Bangalore, Goa, Kolkata, Mumbai, Europe, Silicon, New York, Germany
Despite Thursday's declines, the S & P 500 is only 2% from last week's record highs. The surprise isn't that the S & P 500 dropped Thursday. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months First-quarter earnings estimates for the S & P 500 have slipped to an expected gain of 5.1%, down from an anticipated increase of 7.2% on Jan. 1, according to LSEG. Since earnings are what ultimately moves stocks, the question is not "What would cause a modest 2% to 5% decline?" To do that, market participants would need to believe that earnings estimates were off significantly.
Persons: Daniel Kahneman, Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Neel Kashkari, it's, John Butters, Charles Schwab Organizations: Economic Sciences, Israel's, Federal Reserve Bank of, FactSet Locations: Gaza, Iran, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Asia-Pacific markets were largely set to fall on Friday, mirroring moves on Wall Street after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials fueled worries that the central bank could hold off on rate cuts. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari cast doubts on Thursday over the central bank cutting rates at all if inflation remained sticky. Oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude surpassing $86 a barrel to test six-month highs. Brent crude prices also set a new six-month high of $90.65. S&P will also release its business activity numbers for Hong Kong, while the Reserve Bank of India will announce its rate decision later in the day.
Persons: Neel Kashkari Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Brent, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Hong Kong
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